Temperature-related changes in airborne allergenic pollen abundance and seasonality across the northern hemisphere: a retrospective data analysis

Lewis H. Ziska; László Makra; Susan K. Harry; Nicolas Bruffaerts; Marijke Hendrickx; Frances Coates; Annika Saarto; Michel Thibaudon; Gilles Oliver; Athanasios Damialis; Athanasios Charalampopoulos; Despoina Vokou; Starri Heiđmarsson; Ellý Guđjohnsen; Maira Bonini; Jae-Won Oh; Krista Sullivan; Linda Ford; G. Daniel Brooks; Dorota Myszkowska; Elena Severova; Regula Gehrig; Germán Darío Ramón; Paul J. Beggs; Kim Knowlton; Allison R. Crimmins

doi:10.1016/S2542-5196(19)30015-4

Temperature-related changes in airborne allergenic pollen abundance and seasonality across the northern hemisphere: a retrospective data analysis

Lewis H. Ziska^*, László Makra, Susan K. Harry, Nicolas Bruffaerts, Marijke Hendrickx, Frances Coates, Annika Saarto, Michel Thibaudon, Gilles Oliver, Athanasios Damialis, Athanasios Charalampopoulos, Despoina Vokou, Starri Heiđmarsson, Ellý Guđjohnsen, Maira Bonini, Jae-Won Oh, Krista Sullivan, Linda Ford, G. Daniel Brooks, Dorota MyszkowskaElena Severova, Regula Gehrig, Germán Darío Ramón, Paul J. Beggs, Kim Knowlton, Allison R. Crimmins

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

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Abstract

Background: Ongoing climate change might, through rising temperatures, alter allergenic pollen biology across the northern hemisphere. We aimed to analyse trends in pollen seasonality and pollen load and to establish whether there are specific climate-related links to any observed changes.

Methods: For this retrospective data analysis, we did an extensive search for global datasets with 20 years or more of airborne pollen data that consistently recorded pollen season indices (eg, duration and intensity). 17 locations across three continents with long-term (approximately 26 years on average) quantitative records of seasonal concentrations of multiple pollen (aeroallergen) taxa met the selection criteria. These datasets were analysed in the context of recent annual changes in maximum temperature (T _max ) and minimum temperature (T _min ) associated with anthropogenic climate change. Seasonal regressions (slopes) of variation in pollen load and pollen season duration over time were compared to T _max , cumulative degree day T _max , T _min , cumulative degree day T _min , and frost-free days among all 17 locations to ascertain significant correlations.

Findings: 12 (71%) of the 17 locations showed significant increases in seasonal cumulative pollen or annual pollen load. Similarly, 11 (65%) of the 17 locations showed a significant increase in pollen season duration over time, increasing, on average, 0·9 days per year. Across the northern hemisphere locations analysed, annual cumulative increases in T _max over time were significantly associated with percentage increases in seasonal pollen load (r=0·52, p=0·034) as were annual cumulative increases in T _min (r=0·61, p=0·010). Similar results were observed for pollen season duration, but only for cumulative degree days (higher than the freezing point [0°C or 32°F]) for T _max (r=0·53, p=0·030) and T _min (r=0·48, p=0·05). Additionally, temporal increases in frost-free days per year were significantly correlated with increases in both pollen load (r=0·62, p=0·008) and pollen season duration (r=0·68, p=0·003) when averaged for all 17 locations.

Interpretation: Our findings reveal that the ongoing increase in temperature extremes (T _min and T _max ) might already be contributing to extended seasonal duration and increased pollen load for multiple aeroallergenic pollen taxa in diverse locations across the northern hemisphere. This study, done across multiple continents, highlights an important link between ongoing global warming and public health—one that could be exacerbated as temperatures continue to increase.

Funding: None.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	e124-e131
Number of pages	8
Journal	The Lancet Planetary Health
Volume	3
Issue number	3
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(19)30015-4
Publication status	Published - Mar 2019

Bibliographical note

Copyright the Author(s) 2019. Version archived for private and non-commercial use with the permission of the author/s and according to publisher conditions. For further rights please contact the publisher.

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10.1016/S2542-5196(19)30015-4

Publisher version (open access)Final published version, 432 KBLicence: CC BY-NC-ND

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Ziska, L. H., Makra, L., Harry, S. K., Bruffaerts, N., Hendrickx, M., Coates, F., Saarto, A., Thibaudon, M., Oliver, G., Damialis, A., Charalampopoulos, A., Vokou, D., Heiđmarsson, S., Guđjohnsen, E., Bonini, M., Oh, J.-W., Sullivan, K., Ford, L., Brooks, G. D., ... Crimmins, A. R. (2019). Temperature-related changes in airborne allergenic pollen abundance and seasonality across the northern hemisphere: a retrospective data analysis. The Lancet Planetary Health, 3(3), e124-e131. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(19)30015-4

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title = "Temperature-related changes in airborne allergenic pollen abundance and seasonality across the northern hemisphere: a retrospective data analysis",

abstract = " Background: Ongoing climate change might, through rising temperatures, alter allergenic pollen biology across the northern hemisphere. We aimed to analyse trends in pollen seasonality and pollen load and to establish whether there are specific climate-related links to any observed changes.Methods: For this retrospective data analysis, we did an extensive search for global datasets with 20 years or more of airborne pollen data that consistently recorded pollen season indices (eg, duration and intensity). 17 locations across three continents with long-term (approximately 26 years on average) quantitative records of seasonal concentrations of multiple pollen (aeroallergen) taxa met the selection criteria. These datasets were analysed in the context of recent annual changes in maximum temperature (T max ) and minimum temperature (T min ) associated with anthropogenic climate change. Seasonal regressions (slopes) of variation in pollen load and pollen season duration over time were compared to T max , cumulative degree day T max , T min , cumulative degree day T min , and frost-free days among all 17 locations to ascertain significant correlations.Findings: 12 (71%) of the 17 locations showed significant increases in seasonal cumulative pollen or annual pollen load. Similarly, 11 (65%) of the 17 locations showed a significant increase in pollen season duration over time, increasing, on average, 0·9 days per year. Across the northern hemisphere locations analysed, annual cumulative increases in T max over time were significantly associated with percentage increases in seasonal pollen load (r=0·52, p=0·034) as were annual cumulative increases in T min (r=0·61, p=0·010). Similar results were observed for pollen season duration, but only for cumulative degree days (higher than the freezing point [0°C or 32°F]) for T max (r=0·53, p=0·030) and T min (r=0·48, p=0·05). Additionally, temporal increases in frost-free days per year were significantly correlated with increases in both pollen load (r=0·62, p=0·008) and pollen season duration (r=0·68, p=0·003) when averaged for all 17 locations.Interpretation: Our findings reveal that the ongoing increase in temperature extremes (T min and T max ) might already be contributing to extended seasonal duration and increased pollen load for multiple aeroallergenic pollen taxa in diverse locations across the northern hemisphere. This study, done across multiple continents, highlights an important link between ongoing global warming and public health—one that could be exacerbated as temperatures continue to increase.Funding: None. ",

author = "Ziska, {Lewis H.} and L{\'a}szl{\'o} Makra and Harry, {Susan K.} and Nicolas Bruffaerts and Marijke Hendrickx and Frances Coates and Annika Saarto and Michel Thibaudon and Gilles Oliver and Athanasios Damialis and Athanasios Charalampopoulos and Despoina Vokou and Starri Hei{\d}marsson and Ell{\'y} Gu{\d}johnsen and Maira Bonini and Jae-Won Oh and Krista Sullivan and Linda Ford and Brooks, {G. Daniel} and Dorota Myszkowska and Elena Severova and Regula Gehrig and Ram{\'o}n, {Germ{\'a}n Dar{\'i}o} and Beggs, {Paul J.} and Kim Knowlton and Crimmins, {Allison R.}",

note = "Copyright the Author(s) 2019. Version archived for private and non-commercial use with the permission of the author/s and according to publisher conditions. For further rights please contact the publisher.",

year = "2019",

month = mar,

doi = "10.1016/S2542-5196(19)30015-4",

language = "English",

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Ziska, LH, Makra, L, Harry, SK, Bruffaerts, N, Hendrickx, M, Coates, F, Saarto, A, Thibaudon, M, Oliver, G, Damialis, A, Charalampopoulos, A, Vokou, D, Heiđmarsson, S, Guđjohnsen, E, Bonini, M, Oh, J-W, Sullivan, K, Ford, L, Brooks, GD, Myszkowska, D, Severova, E, Gehrig, R, Ramón, GD, Beggs, PJ, Knowlton, K & Crimmins, AR 2019, 'Temperature-related changes in airborne allergenic pollen abundance and seasonality across the northern hemisphere: a retrospective data analysis', The Lancet Planetary Health, vol. 3, no. 3, pp. e124-e131. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(19)30015-4

TY - JOUR

T1 - Temperature-related changes in airborne allergenic pollen abundance and seasonality across the northern hemisphere

T2 - a retrospective data analysis

AU - Ziska, Lewis H.

AU - Makra, László

AU - Harry, Susan K.

AU - Bruffaerts, Nicolas

AU - Hendrickx, Marijke

AU - Coates, Frances

AU - Saarto, Annika

AU - Thibaudon, Michel

AU - Oliver, Gilles

AU - Damialis, Athanasios

AU - Charalampopoulos, Athanasios

AU - Vokou, Despoina

AU - Heiđmarsson, Starri

AU - Guđjohnsen, Ellý

AU - Bonini, Maira

AU - Oh, Jae-Won

AU - Sullivan, Krista

AU - Ford, Linda

AU - Brooks, G. Daniel

AU - Myszkowska, Dorota

AU - Severova, Elena

AU - Gehrig, Regula

AU - Ramón, Germán Darío

AU - Beggs, Paul J.

AU - Knowlton, Kim

AU - Crimmins, Allison R.

N1 - Copyright the Author(s) 2019. Version archived for private and non-commercial use with the permission of the author/s and according to publisher conditions. For further rights please contact the publisher.

PY - 2019/3

Y1 - 2019/3

N2 - Background: Ongoing climate change might, through rising temperatures, alter allergenic pollen biology across the northern hemisphere. We aimed to analyse trends in pollen seasonality and pollen load and to establish whether there are specific climate-related links to any observed changes.Methods: For this retrospective data analysis, we did an extensive search for global datasets with 20 years or more of airborne pollen data that consistently recorded pollen season indices (eg, duration and intensity). 17 locations across three continents with long-term (approximately 26 years on average) quantitative records of seasonal concentrations of multiple pollen (aeroallergen) taxa met the selection criteria. These datasets were analysed in the context of recent annual changes in maximum temperature (T max ) and minimum temperature (T min ) associated with anthropogenic climate change. Seasonal regressions (slopes) of variation in pollen load and pollen season duration over time were compared to T max , cumulative degree day T max , T min , cumulative degree day T min , and frost-free days among all 17 locations to ascertain significant correlations.Findings: 12 (71%) of the 17 locations showed significant increases in seasonal cumulative pollen or annual pollen load. Similarly, 11 (65%) of the 17 locations showed a significant increase in pollen season duration over time, increasing, on average, 0·9 days per year. Across the northern hemisphere locations analysed, annual cumulative increases in T max over time were significantly associated with percentage increases in seasonal pollen load (r=0·52, p=0·034) as were annual cumulative increases in T min (r=0·61, p=0·010). Similar results were observed for pollen season duration, but only for cumulative degree days (higher than the freezing point [0°C or 32°F]) for T max (r=0·53, p=0·030) and T min (r=0·48, p=0·05). Additionally, temporal increases in frost-free days per year were significantly correlated with increases in both pollen load (r=0·62, p=0·008) and pollen season duration (r=0·68, p=0·003) when averaged for all 17 locations.Interpretation: Our findings reveal that the ongoing increase in temperature extremes (T min and T max ) might already be contributing to extended seasonal duration and increased pollen load for multiple aeroallergenic pollen taxa in diverse locations across the northern hemisphere. This study, done across multiple continents, highlights an important link between ongoing global warming and public health—one that could be exacerbated as temperatures continue to increase.Funding: None.

AB - Background: Ongoing climate change might, through rising temperatures, alter allergenic pollen biology across the northern hemisphere. We aimed to analyse trends in pollen seasonality and pollen load and to establish whether there are specific climate-related links to any observed changes.Methods: For this retrospective data analysis, we did an extensive search for global datasets with 20 years or more of airborne pollen data that consistently recorded pollen season indices (eg, duration and intensity). 17 locations across three continents with long-term (approximately 26 years on average) quantitative records of seasonal concentrations of multiple pollen (aeroallergen) taxa met the selection criteria. These datasets were analysed in the context of recent annual changes in maximum temperature (T max ) and minimum temperature (T min ) associated with anthropogenic climate change. Seasonal regressions (slopes) of variation in pollen load and pollen season duration over time were compared to T max , cumulative degree day T max , T min , cumulative degree day T min , and frost-free days among all 17 locations to ascertain significant correlations.Findings: 12 (71%) of the 17 locations showed significant increases in seasonal cumulative pollen or annual pollen load. Similarly, 11 (65%) of the 17 locations showed a significant increase in pollen season duration over time, increasing, on average, 0·9 days per year. Across the northern hemisphere locations analysed, annual cumulative increases in T max over time were significantly associated with percentage increases in seasonal pollen load (r=0·52, p=0·034) as were annual cumulative increases in T min (r=0·61, p=0·010). Similar results were observed for pollen season duration, but only for cumulative degree days (higher than the freezing point [0°C or 32°F]) for T max (r=0·53, p=0·030) and T min (r=0·48, p=0·05). Additionally, temporal increases in frost-free days per year were significantly correlated with increases in both pollen load (r=0·62, p=0·008) and pollen season duration (r=0·68, p=0·003) when averaged for all 17 locations.Interpretation: Our findings reveal that the ongoing increase in temperature extremes (T min and T max ) might already be contributing to extended seasonal duration and increased pollen load for multiple aeroallergenic pollen taxa in diverse locations across the northern hemisphere. This study, done across multiple continents, highlights an important link between ongoing global warming and public health—one that could be exacerbated as temperatures continue to increase.Funding: None.

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DO - 10.1016/S2542-5196(19)30015-4

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Temperature-related changes in airborne allergenic pollen abundance and seasonality across the northern hemisphere: a retrospective data analysis

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Climate change could affect grass pollen seasons, and your hayfever

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Temperature-related changes in airborne allergenic pollen abundance and seasonality across the northern hemisphere: a retrospective data analysis

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Climate change could affect grass pollen seasons, and your hayfever

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