The Australia-Asia business cycle evolution

Shawn Chen Yu Leu, Jeffrey Sheen

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapterpeer-review

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

We consider whether there has been a gradual decoupling of the Australian business cycle from its trading partners in Europe and North America and a closer convergence toward its trading partners in Asia. We set up a dynamic latent factor model to estimate common dynamic components or factors for the real GDP growth rate of 19 countries. From variance decomposition over the 1991-2009 sample, we find that a global factor contributed the most in explaining Australian output growth variations, followed by a European factor, an Asian factor, and finally a North American factor. However, the correlation between Australian output growth movements and the Asian business cycle factor evolved from negative and small to positive and large after 2002. The European and North American factors were negatively correlated with Australian output growth for most of the sample period before turning positive in the global financial crisis of 2007-2008. This evidence supports the hypothesis that the Australian economy has decoupled to some extent from Europe, was not much coupled with North America except insofar as the United States drove the global factor, and has increasingly become positively coupled with Asia.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationThe evolving role of Asia in global finance
EditorsYin-Wong Cheung, Vikas Kakkar, Guonan Ma
Place of PublicationBingley, UK
PublisherEmerald Group Publishing
Pages287-309
Number of pages23
Volume9
Edition1st
ISBN (Electronic)9780857247469
ISBN (Print)9780857247452, 085724745X
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2011

Publication series

NameFrontiers of Economics and Globalization
PublisherEMERALD GROUP PUBLISHING LTD
Volume9
ISSN (Print)1574-8715

Keywords

  • International business cycle
  • decoupling
  • dynamic latent factor model
  • Kalman filter
  • dynamic correlation
  • variance decomposition

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