The conditional probability of winning games of tennis

John S. Croucher*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

16 Citations (Scopus)


The probability of winning a game of tennis from scratch in terms of the probability of winning an individual point has been well documented. However, once the game is underway this probability rapidly changes. This paper presents formulas for the conditional probabilities of a player winning a game from any scoreline. Each point is ranked in order of importance with regard to winning the game. A number of interesting and surprising features arise and an area of further research is suggested.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)23-26
Number of pages4
JournalResearch Quarterly for Exercise and Sport
Issue number1
Publication statusPublished - 1986


  • Conditional probability
  • Probability
  • Sport
  • Tennis


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