The contribution of structural shocks to Australian unemployment

In this paper dynamic factor analysis techniques are used to decompose changes in unemployment into industry sectoral and common components. Sectoral shocks are important, but the dominant causes of variation in unemployment are common to all industries. This is particularly the case for low-frequency fluctuations in unemployment. The pattern of the estimated sectoral shocks reflects the well-documented shift of employment from agriculture and manufacturing to services, and we find no evidence that microeconomic reform has contributed greatly to unemployment.