The effectiveness of constituency campaign spending in Australian state elections during times of electoral volatility: The New South Wales case, 1988-95

Research into the effects of electioneering at the constituency level suggests positive impacts on voters of campaign spending by one party relative to another. In much of this research, however, the political context of the elections studied is ignored or fitted into Key's category of normal or maintaining elections, where voting patterns remain relatively constant from one election to another. There are few, if any, reports of money-votes relationships associated with other types of elections. Analysis of a deviating election followed by two reinstating elections in the state of New South Wales, Australia, from 1988 to 1995 confirms the generality of postulated relationships between campaign spending and voting patterns, even allowing for some degree of underestimation associated with a misreading of voter intentions by the major parties in times of electoral volatility. Further insights into money-votes relationships are provided from particular features of Australian elections: a focus on marginal seats associated with strategic use of a public funding component of election-campaign expenditure, compulsory voting, and the use of an alternative vote or preferential voting system.