The exploration of economic crises: parameter uncertainty and predictive ability

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5 Citations (Scopus)


Over a long horizon, this paper examines joint economic crises and determines the power of 49 variables in predicting such episodes. While incorporating dynamism in the prediction, we generate the predictive power of various specifications and model the uncertainty in the parameters of interest. The results reveal that growth of real gross domestic product per capita, regulation, bank non-performing loans, interest rate and inflation rate are the most significant variables in predicting the joint economic crises. These variables predict economic crises with about 93% accuracy and can predict joint economic crises in developing countries and recent joint crises.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)290-313
Number of pages24
JournalScottish Journal of Political Economy
Issue number2
Early online date12 Oct 2018
Publication statusPublished - May 2019


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