Objectives: To use new methodology to forecast mortality for use in projections of the elderly population of Australia and to compare them with official projections.Method: The LeeCarter method is applied to data for Australian females and males for 1968-2000 to forecast mortal'ity to 2031. These forecasts are used with standard population projection methods to produce projections of the elderly population. Results: By 2027, forecast life expectancy is 88.1 and 82.9 years for females and males, compared with official projections of 85.4 and 81.4 years. Over the period to 2031, the populations aged 65+and 8Sc are forecast to increase by factors of 2.3 and 3.4 respectively. Compared with official projectrons, the forecast elderly population is substantially larger and has higher old-age dependency ratios, higher proportions aged 85+ and lower sex ratios. Conclusion: Official projections underestimate the size of the future elderly population especially the female and ola'est-oldpopulations.
|Number of pages||7|
|Journal||Australasian Journal on Ageing|
|Publication status||Published - Dec 2003|