The future of deterrence and the arms trade

Deterrence is a strategy adopted by one actor to dissuade another against a particular course action. It usually involves threating force so that the deterrence does not have to use it and with the aim of maintaining the status quo. In the last half century or so, most countries have become increasingly reliant upon the international arms trade to build and sustain their defence forces, rather than redirecting domestic industry towards arms production. This has had a profound and understudied impact on traditional deterrence theory. This chapter examines immediate, general and extended deterrence strategies in these changed circumstances and zeros in to examine the arms trade between America and Taiwan in the context ofan increasingly formidable China.