The indirect costs of ischemic heart disease through lost productive life years for Australia from 2015 to 2030

results from a microsimulation model

Deborah Schofield, Michelle Cunich*, Rupendra Shrestha, Megan Passey, Lennert Veerman, Robert Tanton, Simon Kelly

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

3 Citations (Scopus)
3 Downloads (Pure)


Background: Most studies measure the impact of ischemic heart disease (IHD) on individuals using quality of life metrics such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs); however, IHD also has an enormous impact on productive life years (PLYs). The objective of this study was to project the indirect costs of IHD resulting from lost PLYs to older Australian workers (45-64 years), government, and society 2015-2030. Methods: Nationally representative data from the Surveys of Disability, Ageing and Carers (2003, 2009) were used to develop the base population in the microsimulation model (Health&WealthMOD2030), which integrated data from established microsimulation models (STINMOD, APPSIM), Treasury's population and workforce projections, and chronic conditions trends. Results: We projected that 6700 people aged 45-64 were out of the labour force due to IHD in 2015, increasing to 8100 in 2030 (21 increase). National costs consisted of a loss of AU$273 (US$263) million in income for people with IHD in 2015, increasing to AU$443 ($US426) million (62% increase). For the government, extra welfare payments increased from AU$106 (US$102) million in 2015 to AU$143 (US$138) million in 2030 (35% increase); and lost income tax revenue increased from AU$74 (US$71) million in 2015 to AU$117 (US$113) million in 2030 (58% increase). A loss of AU$785 (US$755) million in GDP was projected for 2015, increasing to AU$1125 (US$1082) million in 2030. Conclusions: Significant costs of IHD through lost productivity are incurred by individuals, the government, and society. The benefits of IHD interventions include not only improved health but also potentially economic benefits as workforce capacity.

Original languageEnglish
Article number802
Pages (from-to)1-13
Number of pages13
JournalBMC Public Health
Issue number1
Publication statusPublished - 21 Jun 2019

Bibliographical note

Copyright The Author(s) 2019. Version archived for private and non-commercial use with the permission of the author/s and according to publisher conditions. For further rights please contact the publisher.


  • Cardiovascular disease
  • Income
  • Indirect costs
  • Ischemic heart disease
  • Microsimulation
  • Productivity

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