The Limits of supposing: semantic illusions and conditional probability

Shira Elqayam; Simon J. Handley; Jonathan St. B. T. Evans

The Limits of supposing: semantic illusions and conditional probability

Shira Elqayam, Simon J. Handley, Jonathan St. B. T. Evans

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference proceeding contribution › peer-review

Abstract

Faced with extreme demands, hypothetical thinking runs the danger of total failure. Paradoxical propositions such as the LIAR (‘I am lying’) provide an opportunity to test it to its limits. Embedded in conditionals, they tended to occasion a breakdown of probabilistic inference (0% True-0% False pattern) demonstrating the vulnerability of hypothetical thinking when taxed by embedded suppositional processes. In contrast, items with the TRUTHTELLER (‘I am telling the truth’) were ‘collapsed’ to responses of conditional probability closely resembling estimates of control items.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Proceedings of the 27th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society
Editors	Bruno G. Bara, Lawrence Barsalou, Monica Bucciarelli
Place of Publication	Mahwah, NJ
Publisher	Lawrence Erlbaum
Pages	630-635
Number of pages	6
ISBN (Print)	0976831813
Publication status	Published - 2005
Externally published	Yes
Event	Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society (27th : 2005) - Stresa, Italy Duration: 21 Jul 2005 → 23 Jul 2005

Conference

Conference	Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society (27th : 2005)
City	Stresa, Italy
Period	21/07/05 → 23/07/05

Keywords

reasoning
conditionals
liar paradox

Access to Document

http://csjarchive.cogsci.rpi.edu/Proceedings/2005/forms/content4.htm

Cite this

@inproceedings{67ed87a15573401f8d14864929d0a7fe,

title = "The Limits of supposing: semantic illusions and conditional probability",

abstract = "Faced with extreme demands, hypothetical thinking runs the danger of total failure. Paradoxical propositions such as the LIAR ({\textquoteleft}I am lying{\textquoteright}) provide an opportunity to test it to its limits. Embedded in conditionals, they tended to occasion a breakdown of probabilistic inference (0% True-0% False pattern) demonstrating the vulnerability of hypothetical thinking when taxed by embedded suppositional processes. In contrast, items with the TRUTHTELLER ({\textquoteleft}I am telling the truth{\textquoteright}) were {\textquoteleft}collapsed{\textquoteright} to responses of conditional probability closely resembling estimates of control items.",

keywords = "reasoning, conditionals, liar paradox",

author = "Shira Elqayam and Handley, {Simon J.} and Evans, {Jonathan St. B. T.}",

year = "2005",

language = "English",

isbn = "0976831813",

pages = "630--635",

editor = "Bara, {Bruno G.} and Lawrence Barsalou and Monica Bucciarelli",

booktitle = "Proceedings of the 27th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society",

publisher = "Lawrence Erlbaum",

note = "Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society (27th : 2005) ; Conference date: 21-07-2005 Through 23-07-2005",

}

Elqayam, S, Handley, SJ & Evans, JSBT 2005, The Limits of supposing: semantic illusions and conditional probability. in BG Bara, L Barsalou & M Bucciarelli (eds), Proceedings of the 27th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society. Lawrence Erlbaum, Mahwah, NJ, pp. 630-635, Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society (27th : 2005), Stresa, Italy, 21/07/05. <http://csjarchive.cogsci.rpi.edu/Proceedings/2005/forms/content4.htm>

The Limits of supposing : semantic illusions and conditional probability. / Elqayam, Shira; Handley, Simon J.; Evans, Jonathan St. B. T.

Proceedings of the 27th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society. ed. / Bruno G. Bara; Lawrence Barsalou; Monica Bucciarelli. Mahwah, NJ : Lawrence Erlbaum, 2005. p. 630-635.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference proceeding contribution › peer-review

TY - GEN

T1 - The Limits of supposing

T2 - Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society (27th : 2005)

AU - Elqayam, Shira

AU - Handley, Simon J.

AU - Evans, Jonathan St. B. T.

PY - 2005

Y1 - 2005

N2 - Faced with extreme demands, hypothetical thinking runs the danger of total failure. Paradoxical propositions such as the LIAR (‘I am lying’) provide an opportunity to test it to its limits. Embedded in conditionals, they tended to occasion a breakdown of probabilistic inference (0% True-0% False pattern) demonstrating the vulnerability of hypothetical thinking when taxed by embedded suppositional processes. In contrast, items with the TRUTHTELLER (‘I am telling the truth’) were ‘collapsed’ to responses of conditional probability closely resembling estimates of control items.

AB - Faced with extreme demands, hypothetical thinking runs the danger of total failure. Paradoxical propositions such as the LIAR (‘I am lying’) provide an opportunity to test it to its limits. Embedded in conditionals, they tended to occasion a breakdown of probabilistic inference (0% True-0% False pattern) demonstrating the vulnerability of hypothetical thinking when taxed by embedded suppositional processes. In contrast, items with the TRUTHTELLER (‘I am telling the truth’) were ‘collapsed’ to responses of conditional probability closely resembling estimates of control items.

KW - reasoning

KW - conditionals

KW - liar paradox

M3 - Conference proceeding contribution

SN - 0976831813

SP - 630

EP - 635

BT - Proceedings of the 27th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society

A2 - Bara, Bruno G.

A2 - Barsalou, Lawrence

A2 - Bucciarelli, Monica

PB - Lawrence Erlbaum

CY - Mahwah, NJ

Y2 - 21 July 2005 through 23 July 2005

ER -

The Limits of supposing: semantic illusions and conditional probability

Abstract

Conference

Keywords

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