The market for salmon futures

an empirical analysis of the fish pool using the Schwartz multi-factor model

Christian Oliver Ewald*, Roy Nawar, Ruolan Ouyang, Tak Kuen Siu

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

Using the popular Schwartz 97 two-factor approach, we study future contracts written on fresh farmed salmon, which have been actively traded at the Fish Pool Market in Norway since 2006. This approach features a stochastic convenience yield for the salmon spot price. We connect this approach with the classical literature on fish-farming and aquaculture using first principles, starting by modelling the aggregate salmon farming production process and modelling the demand using a Cobb–Douglas utility function for a representative consumer. The model is estimated by means of Kalman filtering, using a rich data-set of contracts with different maturities traded at Fish Pool between 12 June 2006 and 22 June 2012. The results are then discussed in the context of other commodity markets, specifically for live cattle which acts as a substitute.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1823-1842
Number of pages20
JournalQuantitative Finance
Volume16
Issue number12
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Dec 2016

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