The next widespread bamboo flowering poses a massive risk to the giant panda

Zhaoxue Tian; Xuehua Liu; Zhiyong Fan; Jianguo Liu; Stuart L. Pimm; Lanmei Liu; Claude Garcia; Melissa Songer; Xiaoming Shao; Andrew Skidmore; Tiejun Wang; Yuke Zhang; Youde Chang; Xuelin Jin; Minghao Gong; Lingguo Zhou; Xiangbo He; Gaodi Dang; Yun Zhu; Qiong Cai

doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2019.03.030

The next widespread bamboo flowering poses a massive risk to the giant panda

Zhaoxue Tian, Xuehua Liu^*, Zhiyong Fan, Jianguo Liu, Stuart L. Pimm, Lanmei Liu, Claude Garcia, Melissa Songer, Xiaoming Shao, Andrew Skidmore, Tiejun Wang, Yuke Zhang, Youde Chang, Xuelin Jin, Minghao Gong, Lingguo Zhou, Xiangbo He, Gaodi Dang, Yun Zhu, Qiong Cai

^*Corresponding author for this work

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Abstract

The IUCN Red List has downgraded several species from "endangered" to "vulnerable" that still have largely unknown extinction risks. We consider one of those downgraded species, the giant panda, a bamboo specialist. Massive bamboo flowering could be a natural disaster for giant pandas. Using scenario analysis, we explored possible impacts of the next bamboo flowering in the Qinling and Minshan Mountains that are home to most giant pandas. Our results showed that the Qinling Mountains could experience large-scale bamboo flowering leading to a high risk of widespread food shortages for the giant pandas by 2020. The Minshan Mountains could similarly experience a large-scale bamboo flowering with a high risk for giant pandas between 2020 and 2030 without suitable alternative habitat in the surrounding areas. These scenarios highlight thus-far unforeseen dangers of conserving giant pandas in a fragmented habitat. We recommend advance measures to protect giant panda from severe population crashes when flowering happens. This study also suggests the need to anticipate and manage long-term risks to other downgraded species.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	180-187
Number of pages	8
Journal	Biological Conservation
Volume	234
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2019.03.030
Publication status	Published - Jun 2019

Bibliographical note

Copyright the Author(s) 2019. Version archived for private and non-commercial use with the permission of the author/s and according to publisher conditions. For further rights please contact the publisher.

Keywords

Scenario analysis
Massive bamboo flowering
Risk pattern
Giant panda
Qinling Mountains
Minshan Mountains

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10.1016/j.biocon.2019.03.030Licence: CC BY-NC-ND

Publisher versionFinal published version, 2.35 MBLicence: CC BY-NC-ND

Cite this

Tian, Z., Liu, X., Fan, Z., Liu, J., Pimm, S. L., Liu, L., Garcia, C., Songer, M., Shao, X., Skidmore, A., Wang, T., Zhang, Y., Chang, Y., Jin, X., Gong, M., Zhou, L., He, X., Dang, G., Zhu, Y., & Cai, Q. (2019). The next widespread bamboo flowering poses a massive risk to the giant panda. Biological Conservation, 234, 180-187. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2019.03.030

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AU - Fan, Zhiyong

AU - Liu, Jianguo

AU - Pimm, Stuart L.

AU - Liu, Lanmei

AU - Garcia, Claude

AU - Songer, Melissa

AU - Shao, Xiaoming

AU - Skidmore, Andrew

AU - Wang, Tiejun

AU - Zhang, Yuke

AU - Chang, Youde

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AU - Gong, Minghao

AU - Zhou, Lingguo

AU - He, Xiangbo

AU - Dang, Gaodi

AU - Zhu, Yun

AU - Cai, Qiong

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N2 - The IUCN Red List has downgraded several species from "endangered" to "vulnerable" that still have largely unknown extinction risks. We consider one of those downgraded species, the giant panda, a bamboo specialist. Massive bamboo flowering could be a natural disaster for giant pandas. Using scenario analysis, we explored possible impacts of the next bamboo flowering in the Qinling and Minshan Mountains that are home to most giant pandas. Our results showed that the Qinling Mountains could experience large-scale bamboo flowering leading to a high risk of widespread food shortages for the giant pandas by 2020. The Minshan Mountains could similarly experience a large-scale bamboo flowering with a high risk for giant pandas between 2020 and 2030 without suitable alternative habitat in the surrounding areas. These scenarios highlight thus-far unforeseen dangers of conserving giant pandas in a fragmented habitat. We recommend advance measures to protect giant panda from severe population crashes when flowering happens. This study also suggests the need to anticipate and manage long-term risks to other downgraded species.

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The next widespread bamboo flowering poses a massive risk to the giant panda

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Keywords

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