Abstract
This paper compares the relative forecast accuracy of the consensus and the most recent individual analyst earnings forecast using Australian analyst forecast data. It then examines the reasons for differences in the accuracy of these forecast measures in a market with relatively few analysts.
The consensus forecast is more accurate than the most recent individual analyst forecast in 19 out of 20 years of the sample period from 1987 to 2006. The differences are significant for 9 out of 20 years. In spite of the low number of analysts following in the local market, it is the number of analysts following which explains the greater accuracy of the consensus forecast. Furthermore, the timeliness of analysts’ forecasts does not contribute to increasing forecast accuracy over a short forecast horizon.
| Original language | English |
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| Title of host publication | 31st Annual Congress of the European Accounting Association |
| Place of Publication | Rotterdam, Holland |
| Publisher | European Accounting Association |
| Number of pages | 38 |
| Publication status | Published - 2008 |
| Event | Annual Congress of the European Accounting Association (31st : 2008) - Rotterdam, Holland Duration: 23 Apr 2008 → 25 Apr 2008 |
Conference
| Conference | Annual Congress of the European Accounting Association (31st : 2008) |
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| City | Rotterdam, Holland |
| Period | 23/04/08 → 25/04/08 |
Keywords
- earnings forecasts
- financial analysts
- consensus forecast