Threshold non-linear dynamics between hang seng stock index and futures returns

Hon Lun Chung, Wai Sum Chan, Jonathan A. Batten

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

10 Citations (Scopus)


We test the joint dynamics between the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index futures and the underlying cash index using a Bivariate Threshold AutoRegressive model, which is better able to capture the complex return dynamics evident in financial time series. The results are consistent with a three-regime version of the model, where the lead-lag relation between the index and futures returns is a non-linear thres hold type and the regime switching process depends on the state of the threshold variable. This interaction is symmetric rather than unidirectional, with the strength of the interaction dependent on the regime. These three regimes are also characterised by significant variation in volume, which is consistent with liquidity-induced arbitrage trading.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)471-486
Number of pages16
JournalEuropean Journal of Finance
Issue number7
Publication statusPublished - Aug 2011


  • Futures markets
  • Hang seng index
  • Lead-lag relationship
  • Non-linearity test
  • Threshold autoregression


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