This paper examines data from four Australian National Health Surveys and shows that decline in tobacco smoking prevalence experienced in Australia since World War II may not have continued as might have been inferred from the Lopez et al. model. The decline may have stabilized at approximately 20% of the adult population despite active anti-smoking campaigns. The data also suggest that changes in smoking status have not been consistent across all segments of the population despite all segments being exposed to the same fear-based campaign strategy. The data also suggests that while this health-scare approach may have coincided with improvements in the proportions of some groups of smokers who successfully quit the habit, an increase in the proportion of young females who have, at some stage, commenced to smoke has begun. If smoking prevalence is to be eradicated in Australia or other similar markets, campaigns must address cessation and prevention.