Trends and low frequency variability of East Coast Lows in the twentieth century

Fei Ji, Acacia S. Pepler, Stuart Browning, Jason P. Evans, Alejandro Di Luca

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

Abstract

East Coast Lows (ECLs) are important weather systems that affect the eastern seaboard of Australia. They have attracted research interest for both their destructive nature and water supplying capability. In this paper, three objective ECL tracking methods are applied to the twentieth century reanalysis ensemble (20CR V2C) for the period of 1851-2014 to identify historical trends and variability in ECLs. While the ensemble mean is unsuitable for tracking ECLs, when all methods are applied to the full 56-member ensemble there is large agreement between tracking methods as to the low-frequency variability and trends in ECLs. The uncertainty between 56 ensemble members has dramatically decreased in recent decades. For comparison, the three tracking methods are also applied to ERA-I reanalysis dataset for the overlapping time period (1980-2009). The inter-annual variability and monthly distribution of ECLs agrees well between different reanalysis for each of tracking methods. The most recent decade has had relatively low numbers of ECLs compared to the previous century.

LanguageEnglish
JournalJournal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science
Volume68
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusE-pub ahead of print - 1 Jan 2018

Fingerprint

twentieth century
coast
trend
method
weather

Cite this

@article{452f0923085a43a5893f8e564f6b39df,
title = "Trends and low frequency variability of East Coast Lows in the twentieth century",
abstract = "East Coast Lows (ECLs) are important weather systems that affect the eastern seaboard of Australia. They have attracted research interest for both their destructive nature and water supplying capability. In this paper, three objective ECL tracking methods are applied to the twentieth century reanalysis ensemble (20CR V2C) for the period of 1851-2014 to identify historical trends and variability in ECLs. While the ensemble mean is unsuitable for tracking ECLs, when all methods are applied to the full 56-member ensemble there is large agreement between tracking methods as to the low-frequency variability and trends in ECLs. The uncertainty between 56 ensemble members has dramatically decreased in recent decades. For comparison, the three tracking methods are also applied to ERA-I reanalysis dataset for the overlapping time period (1980-2009). The inter-annual variability and monthly distribution of ECLs agrees well between different reanalysis for each of tracking methods. The most recent decade has had relatively low numbers of ECLs compared to the previous century.",
author = "Fei Ji and Pepler, {Acacia S.} and Stuart Browning and Evans, {Jason P.} and {Di Luca}, Alejandro",
year = "2018",
month = "1",
day = "1",
doi = "10.22499/3.6801.001",
language = "English",
volume = "68",
journal = "Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science",
issn = "2206-5865",
publisher = "Australian Bureau of Meteorology",
number = "1",

}

Trends and low frequency variability of East Coast Lows in the twentieth century. / Ji, Fei; Pepler, Acacia S.; Browning, Stuart; Evans, Jason P.; Di Luca, Alejandro.

In: Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science, Vol. 68, No. 1, 01.01.2018.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Trends and low frequency variability of East Coast Lows in the twentieth century

AU - Ji, Fei

AU - Pepler, Acacia S.

AU - Browning, Stuart

AU - Evans, Jason P.

AU - Di Luca, Alejandro

PY - 2018/1/1

Y1 - 2018/1/1

N2 - East Coast Lows (ECLs) are important weather systems that affect the eastern seaboard of Australia. They have attracted research interest for both their destructive nature and water supplying capability. In this paper, three objective ECL tracking methods are applied to the twentieth century reanalysis ensemble (20CR V2C) for the period of 1851-2014 to identify historical trends and variability in ECLs. While the ensemble mean is unsuitable for tracking ECLs, when all methods are applied to the full 56-member ensemble there is large agreement between tracking methods as to the low-frequency variability and trends in ECLs. The uncertainty between 56 ensemble members has dramatically decreased in recent decades. For comparison, the three tracking methods are also applied to ERA-I reanalysis dataset for the overlapping time period (1980-2009). The inter-annual variability and monthly distribution of ECLs agrees well between different reanalysis for each of tracking methods. The most recent decade has had relatively low numbers of ECLs compared to the previous century.

AB - East Coast Lows (ECLs) are important weather systems that affect the eastern seaboard of Australia. They have attracted research interest for both their destructive nature and water supplying capability. In this paper, three objective ECL tracking methods are applied to the twentieth century reanalysis ensemble (20CR V2C) for the period of 1851-2014 to identify historical trends and variability in ECLs. While the ensemble mean is unsuitable for tracking ECLs, when all methods are applied to the full 56-member ensemble there is large agreement between tracking methods as to the low-frequency variability and trends in ECLs. The uncertainty between 56 ensemble members has dramatically decreased in recent decades. For comparison, the three tracking methods are also applied to ERA-I reanalysis dataset for the overlapping time period (1980-2009). The inter-annual variability and monthly distribution of ECLs agrees well between different reanalysis for each of tracking methods. The most recent decade has had relatively low numbers of ECLs compared to the previous century.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85061938972&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://purl.org/au-research/grants/arc/FT110100576

UR - http://purl.org/au-research/grants/arc/LP120200777

U2 - 10.22499/3.6801.001

DO - 10.22499/3.6801.001

M3 - Article

VL - 68

JO - Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science

T2 - Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science

JF - Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science

SN - 2206-5865

IS - 1

ER -