Trends in decompensated cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma among people with a hepatitis B notification in New South Wales

Syed Hassan Bin Usman Shah*, Maryam Alavi, Behzad Hajarizadeh, Gail V. Matthews, Marianne Martinello, Mark Danta, Janaki Amin, Matthew G. Law, Jacob George, Heather Valerio, Gregory J. Dore

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

1 Citation (Scopus)
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Abstract

Background & Aims: Population-level trends and factors associated with HBV-related decompensated cirrhosis (DC), hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and liver-related mortality are crucial to evaluate the impacts of therapeutic interventions. Methods: Trends in HBV-DC and -HCC diagnoses and liver-related mortality in New South Wales, Australia, were determined through linkage of HBV notifications (1993-2017) to hospital admissions (2001-2018), mortality (1993-2018), and cancer registry (1994-2014) databases. Late HBV notification was defined as notification at or within 2 years of a DC or HCC diagnosis. Cox proportional-hazards regression and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to evaluate associated factors. Results: Among 60,660 people with a HBV notification, 1,276 (2.0%) DC and 1,087 (1.8%) HCC diagnoses, and 1,219 (2.0%) liver-related deaths were documented. Since the early 2000s, the number of DC and HCC diagnoses increased; however, age-standardised incidence decreased from 2.64 and 1.95 in 2003 to 1.14 and 1.09 per 1,000 person-years in 2017, respectively. Similarly, age-standardised liver mortality decreased from 2.60 in 2003 to 1.14 per 1,000 person-years in 2017. Among people with DC and HCC diagnoses, late HBV notification declined from 41% and 40% between 2001-2009 to 29% and 25% in 2010-2018, respectively. Predictors of DC diagnosis included older age (birth <1944, adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 2.06, 95% CI 1.57–2.69), alcohol use disorder (aHR 4.82, 95% CI 3.96–5.87) and HCV co-infection (aHR 1.88, 95% CI 1.53–2.31). Predictors of HCC diagnosis included older age (birth <1944, aHR 3.94, 95% CI 2.91–5.32) and male sex (aHR 3.79, 95% CI 3.05–4.71). Conclusion: In an era of improved antiviral therapies, the risk of HBV-related liver morbidity and mortality has declined. HCV co-infection and alcohol use disorder are key modifiable risk factors associated with the burden of HBV. Lay summary: Rising hepatitis B-related morbidity and mortality is a major public health concern. However, the development of highly effective medicines against hepatitis B virus (HBV) has brought renewed optimism for its elimination by 2030. This study shows a steady decline in HBV-related liver morbidity and mortality in New South Wales, Australia. Moreover, late hepatitis notification has also declined, allowing individuals with HBV to have access to timely antiviral treatment. Despite this, hepatitis C co-infection and alcohol use disorder are key modifiable risk factors associated with HBV disease burden. To attain the desired benefits from highly effective antiviral treatment, managing comorbidities, including hepatitis C and high alcohol use, must improve among individuals with hepatitis B.

Original languageEnglish
Article number100552
Pages (from-to)1-11
Number of pages12
JournalJHEP Reports
Volume4
Issue number10
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Oct 2022

Bibliographical note

Copyright the Author(s) 2022. Version archived for private and non-commercial use with the permission of the author/s and according to publisher conditions. For further rights please contact the publisher.

A corrigendum exists for this article and can be found in JHEP Reports (2024) Vol 6(3) art. 101022 at doi: 10.1016/j.jhepr.2024.101022

Keywords

  • cause of death
  • DC
  • HCC
  • hepatitis B
  • late HBV notification
  • liver disease
  • liver mortality
  • population-level
  • record linkage
  • risk factors

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