Twelve theses on the greening of capitalism: is China driving the process?

Transition from one sociotechnical regime to another is currently under way. The process of industrialization is diffusing around the world, and is now encompassing industrial giants like China, India and Brazil, creating a 'great convergence'. But as these countries follow the same fossil-fuelled and resource-intensive pathway pursued earlier by the presently advanced world, so they come up against limits imposed by energy and environmental security: the 'business as usual' model will not scale to encompass billions more people. The paper makes the case through twelve theses that the green development model fashioned by China and implemented in complementary fashion with the 'black' fossil-fuelled pathway provides a feasible way forward. Such a pathway involves new rules for energy, resources and above all for finance, and calls for strong state intervention to break the grip of 'carbon lock-in'. The insights that can be generated from sociotechnical analyses of regime shifts are examined and utilized.