Two centuries of bull and bear market cycles

Liliana Gonzalez, John G. Powell, Jing Shi*, Antony Wilson

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

46 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Very few economic phenomena attract more attention than bull and bear market cycles do, and there is also agreement that bull markets are associated with persistently rising share prices, strong investor interest, and enhanced financial well-being. This paper identifies bull and bear market turning points using a formal turning-point identification procedure and finds that the bull and bear market phases are associated with distinct and persistent mean return shifts. The analysis highlights return evidence that distinguishes bull markets as distinct investment return regimes. The paper also emphasizes the properties of bull markets that can be important to investors, including the persistence of return differences between bull and bear markets as well as interrelationships amongst bull markets and investor interest.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)469-486
Number of pages18
JournalInternational Review of Economics and Finance
Volume14
Issue number4
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2005
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • stock market
  • bulls and bears
  • turning-point dating

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