Using palaeo-climate comparisons to constrain future projections in CMIP5

G. A. Schmidt; J. D. Annan; P. J. Bartlein; B. I. Cook; E. Guilyardi; J. C. Hargreaves; S. P. Harrison; M. Kageyama; A. N. Legrande; B. Konecky; S. Lovejoy; M. E. Mann; V. Masson-Delmotte; C. Risi; D. Thompson; A. Timmermann; P. Yiou

doi:10.5194/cp-10-221-2014

Using palaeo-climate comparisons to constrain future projections in CMIP5

G. A. Schmidt^*, J. D. Annan, P. J. Bartlein, B. I. Cook, E. Guilyardi, J. C. Hargreaves, S. P. Harrison, M. Kageyama, A. N. Legrande, B. Konecky, S. Lovejoy, M. E. Mann, V. Masson-Delmotte, C. Risi, D. Thompson, A. Timmermann, P. Yiou

^*Corresponding author for this work

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Abstract

We present a selection of methodologies for using the palaeo-climate model component of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 5) (CMIP5) to attempt to constrain future climate projections using the same models. The constraints arise from measures of skill in hindcasting palaeo-climate changes from the present over three periods: the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (21 000 yr before present, ka), the mid-Holocene (MH) (6 ka) and the Last Millennium (LM) (850-1850 CE). The skill measures may be used to validate robust patterns of climate change across scenarios or to distinguish between models that have differing outcomes in future scenarios. We find that the multi-model ensemble of palaeo-simulations is adequate for addressing at least some of these issues. For example, selected benchmarks for the LGM and MH are correlated to the rank of future projections of precipitation/temperature or sea ice extent to indicate that models that produce the best agreement with palaeo-climate information give demonstrably different future results than the rest of the models. We also explore cases where comparisons are strongly dependent on uncertain forcing time series or show important non-stationarity, making direct inferences for the future problematic. Overall, we demonstrate that there is a strong potential for the palaeo-climate simulations to help inform the future projections and urge all the modelling groups to complete this subset of the CMIP5 runs.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	221-250
Number of pages	30
Journal	Climate of the Past
Volume	10
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-221-2014
Publication status	Published - 5 Feb 2014

Bibliographical note

Copyright the Author(s) 2014. Originally published in Climate of the past, 10, 221-250, 2014. Version archived for private and non-commercial use with the permission of the author/s and according to publisher conditions. For further rights please contact the publisher.

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Schmidt, G. A., Annan, J. D., Bartlein, P. J., Cook, B. I., Guilyardi, E., Hargreaves, J. C., Harrison, S. P., Kageyama, M., Legrande, A. N., Konecky, B., Lovejoy, S., Mann, M. E., Masson-Delmotte, V., Risi, C., Thompson, D., Timmermann, A., & Yiou, P. (2014). Using palaeo-climate comparisons to constrain future projections in CMIP5. Climate of the Past, 10(1), 221-250. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-221-2014

@article{01a6a8e175b846089e552fdd08bf70e7,

title = "Using palaeo-climate comparisons to constrain future projections in CMIP5",

abstract = "We present a selection of methodologies for using the palaeo-climate model component of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 5) (CMIP5) to attempt to constrain future climate projections using the same models. The constraints arise from measures of skill in hindcasting palaeo-climate changes from the present over three periods: the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (21 000 yr before present, ka), the mid-Holocene (MH) (6 ka) and the Last Millennium (LM) (850-1850 CE). The skill measures may be used to validate robust patterns of climate change across scenarios or to distinguish between models that have differing outcomes in future scenarios. We find that the multi-model ensemble of palaeo-simulations is adequate for addressing at least some of these issues. For example, selected benchmarks for the LGM and MH are correlated to the rank of future projections of precipitation/temperature or sea ice extent to indicate that models that produce the best agreement with palaeo-climate information give demonstrably different future results than the rest of the models. We also explore cases where comparisons are strongly dependent on uncertain forcing time series or show important non-stationarity, making direct inferences for the future problematic. Overall, we demonstrate that there is a strong potential for the palaeo-climate simulations to help inform the future projections and urge all the modelling groups to complete this subset of the CMIP5 runs.",

author = "Schmidt, {G. A.} and Annan, {J. D.} and Bartlein, {P. J.} and Cook, {B. I.} and E. Guilyardi and Hargreaves, {J. C.} and Harrison, {S. P.} and M. Kageyama and Legrande, {A. N.} and B. Konecky and S. Lovejoy and Mann, {M. E.} and V. Masson-Delmotte and C. Risi and D. Thompson and A. Timmermann and P. Yiou",

note = "Copyright the Author(s) 2014. Originally published in Climate of the past, 10, 221-250, 2014. Version archived for private and non-commercial use with the permission of the author/s and according to publisher conditions. For further rights please contact the publisher.",

year = "2014",

month = feb,

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doi = "10.5194/cp-10-221-2014",

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Schmidt, GA, Annan, JD, Bartlein, PJ, Cook, BI, Guilyardi, E, Hargreaves, JC, Harrison, SP, Kageyama, M, Legrande, AN, Konecky, B, Lovejoy, S, Mann, ME, Masson-Delmotte, V, Risi, C, Thompson, D, Timmermann, A & Yiou, P 2014, 'Using palaeo-climate comparisons to constrain future projections in CMIP5', Climate of the Past, vol. 10, no. 1, pp. 221-250. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-221-2014

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T1 - Using palaeo-climate comparisons to constrain future projections in CMIP5

AU - Schmidt, G. A.

AU - Annan, J. D.

AU - Bartlein, P. J.

AU - Cook, B. I.

AU - Guilyardi, E.

AU - Hargreaves, J. C.

AU - Harrison, S. P.

AU - Kageyama, M.

AU - Legrande, A. N.

AU - Konecky, B.

AU - Lovejoy, S.

AU - Mann, M. E.

AU - Masson-Delmotte, V.

AU - Risi, C.

AU - Thompson, D.

AU - Timmermann, A.

AU - Yiou, P.

N1 - Copyright the Author(s) 2014. Originally published in Climate of the past, 10, 221-250, 2014. Version archived for private and non-commercial use with the permission of the author/s and according to publisher conditions. For further rights please contact the publisher.

PY - 2014/2/5

Y1 - 2014/2/5

N2 - We present a selection of methodologies for using the palaeo-climate model component of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 5) (CMIP5) to attempt to constrain future climate projections using the same models. The constraints arise from measures of skill in hindcasting palaeo-climate changes from the present over three periods: the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (21 000 yr before present, ka), the mid-Holocene (MH) (6 ka) and the Last Millennium (LM) (850-1850 CE). The skill measures may be used to validate robust patterns of climate change across scenarios or to distinguish between models that have differing outcomes in future scenarios. We find that the multi-model ensemble of palaeo-simulations is adequate for addressing at least some of these issues. For example, selected benchmarks for the LGM and MH are correlated to the rank of future projections of precipitation/temperature or sea ice extent to indicate that models that produce the best agreement with palaeo-climate information give demonstrably different future results than the rest of the models. We also explore cases where comparisons are strongly dependent on uncertain forcing time series or show important non-stationarity, making direct inferences for the future problematic. Overall, we demonstrate that there is a strong potential for the palaeo-climate simulations to help inform the future projections and urge all the modelling groups to complete this subset of the CMIP5 runs.

AB - We present a selection of methodologies for using the palaeo-climate model component of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 5) (CMIP5) to attempt to constrain future climate projections using the same models. The constraints arise from measures of skill in hindcasting palaeo-climate changes from the present over three periods: the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (21 000 yr before present, ka), the mid-Holocene (MH) (6 ka) and the Last Millennium (LM) (850-1850 CE). The skill measures may be used to validate robust patterns of climate change across scenarios or to distinguish between models that have differing outcomes in future scenarios. We find that the multi-model ensemble of palaeo-simulations is adequate for addressing at least some of these issues. For example, selected benchmarks for the LGM and MH are correlated to the rank of future projections of precipitation/temperature or sea ice extent to indicate that models that produce the best agreement with palaeo-climate information give demonstrably different future results than the rest of the models. We also explore cases where comparisons are strongly dependent on uncertain forcing time series or show important non-stationarity, making direct inferences for the future problematic. Overall, we demonstrate that there is a strong potential for the palaeo-climate simulations to help inform the future projections and urge all the modelling groups to complete this subset of the CMIP5 runs.

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Using palaeo-climate comparisons to constrain future projections in CMIP5

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