Volcanic risk modelling for the North Island of New Zealand

VolcaNZ is a probabilistic model created to analyse the hazards and economic impacts of future volcanic events within the North Island of New Zealand. Currently, the model uses Monte Carlo techniques to simulate tephra dispersal from the Auckland, Tuhua, Okataina, Taupo, Tongariro and Egmont volcanic centres and the resulting costs of building damage and cleanup. An important consideration in volcanic risk assessment is that an event may involve multiple eruptive phases with various magnitude and spatial scales. Parameters describing the temporal progression of each simulated event are sampled based on historical volcanic events and anticipated human actions, such as hazard mitigation and cleanup. This approach enables more realistic simulation of the consequences of long duration volcanic events, including the costs to business and government organisations.