West Indian Ocean variability and East African fish catch

M. Jury, T. McClanahan, J. Maina

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

Abstract

We describe marine climate variability off the east coast of Africa in the context of fish catch statistics for Tanzania and Kenya. The time series exhibits quasi-decadal cycles over the period 1964-2007. Fish catch is up when sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric humidity are below normal in the tropical West Indian Ocean. This pattern relates to an ocean Rossby wave in one phase of its east-west oscillation. Coastal-scale analyses indicate that northward currents and uplift on the shelf edge enhance productivity of East African shelf waters. Some of the changes are regulated by the south equatorial current that swings northward from Madagascar. The weather is drier and a salty layer develops in high catch years. While the large-scale West Indian Ocean has some impact on East African fish catch, coastal dynamics play a more significant role. Climatic changes are reviewed using 200 years of past and projected data. The observed warming trend continues to increase such that predicted SST may reach 30°C by 2100 while SW monsoon winds gradually increase, according to a coupled general circulation model simulation with a gradual doubling of CO2.

LanguageEnglish
Pages162-170
Number of pages9
JournalMarine Environmental Research
Volume70
Issue number2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Aug 2010
Externally publishedYes

Fingerprint

Indian Ocean
Fish
surface temperature
sea surface temperature
fish
fisheries statistics
catch statistics
General Circulation Models
ocean wave
Water waves
Rossby wave
shelf break
Madagascar
Tanzania
Kenya
Coastal zones
oscillation
general circulation model
Time series
time series analysis

Keywords

  • East Africa
  • Fish catch variability
  • Physical oceanography

Cite this

Jury, M. ; McClanahan, T. ; Maina, J. / West Indian Ocean variability and East African fish catch. In: Marine Environmental Research. 2010 ; Vol. 70, No. 2. pp. 162-170.
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West Indian Ocean variability and East African fish catch. / Jury, M.; McClanahan, T.; Maina, J.

In: Marine Environmental Research, Vol. 70, No. 2, 08.2010, p. 162-170.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

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