Why doesn't EM find good HMM POS-taggers?

This paper investigates why the HMMs estimated by Expectation-Maximization (EM) produce such poor results as Part-of-Speech (POS) taggers. We find that the HMMs estimated by EM generally assign a roughly equal number of word tokens to each hidden state, while the empirical distribution of tokens to POS tags is highly skewed. This motivates a Bayesian approach using a sparse prior to bias the estimator toward such a skewed distribution. We investigate Gibbs Sampling (GS) and Variational Bayes (VB) estimators and show that VB converges faster than GS for this task and that VB significantly improves 1-to-1 tagging accuracy over EM.We also show that EM does nearly as well as VB when the number of hidden HMM states is dramatically reduced. We also point out the high variance in all of these estimators, and that they require many more iterations to approach convergence than usually thought.